An experiment: Who will be the next president of Egypt?

February 9, 2011 § 4 Comments

The peerless UKpollingreport has a superb article on why exactly this kind of opinion polling is worthless in any instance. Besides, were it to have any value at all, the poll would need to be done on a popular Egyptian site, not an obscure British blog.

But lets not think of it as an opinion poll but instead as an experiment on the wisdom of crowds – after all it seems like individually none of us have any idea who the next president of Egypt will be. So lets see if collectively we do.

I wrote about almost all the potential candidates for the Egyptian presidency here, I’ve also added in head of the army Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi who it has been suggested could step in as an interim head. You can also use the comments to suggest others. So vote away:

UPDATE: I’ve realised this is an ambiguous question. “Who will be the next president of Egypt?” could mean who will win the next elections assuming Mubarak clings on until then, or it could mean who will step in as interim leader if/when Mubarak stands down before then. So let’s think of it as the more interesting question: who do you expect to win the next presidential election?

UPDATE 2: Mubarak is now gone and it is rumoured is in a coma, the Supreme Military Council (chaired by Tantawi) is in overall charge although it is thought VP Suleiman has day-to-day control.

PS, For those of you expecting some more country profiles, please bear with me. They take time and I’ve had a lot on, I’m currently stuck on Cyprus, hope to finish soon.

PPS, if you’re reading this on a mobile and finding it hard to read the candidate’s names they are: Mohamed Adel, Mohammed Badie (Muslim Brotherhood), Mohamed ElBaradei, Wael Ghonim, Gamal Mubarak, Ayman Nour, Naguib Sawiris, Omar Suleiman, Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, Another Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Another Islamist candidate, Another independent or liberal candidate, Another NDP candidate, Another of the “wise men”.

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