The US midterms live blog
November 2, 2010 § 22 Comments
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity:
Hello, good evening and welcome. I will be updating this page as results come in using the comments section throughout the night as well as tweeting on @whoruleswhere.
Going in, the last round of polls suggest the Democrats might keep the Senate whilst the house is too close to call but could well go Republican.
The Republicans need to win 10 Democrat seats to win control of the Senate. The latest polls suggest that they are comfortably ahead in Arkansas (19% lead), Indiana (19% lead), and North Dakota (47% lead). They should also pick up Pennsylvania (6% lead) and Wisconsin (7% lead). That gets them half way there, the rest are within the margin of error.
The Republicans lead in Illinois (by 3%), Colorado (by 2%), and Nevada (by 2%). However they trail in Washington (by 2%) and West Virginia (by 4%).
Moreover, even were the Republicans to take all five, they may need one more as polls suggest that Independent former Republican Lisa Murkowski is leading in Alaska by 5% (with the Democrat only 2% behind the Republican). Lisa Murkowski’s is a write in campaign, her name does not appear on the ballot (and isn’t the easiest to spell), so the 5% margin might not be enough to become only the second ever person elected to federal office via a write in ballot (the first was Strom Thurmond running as a Dixiecrat in South Carolina in 1954) – but it might be.
If she does pull it off then things look grim for the Republicans. Their two next best bets are California (Democrat lead of 5%) and Connecticut (Democrat lead of 9%). Or they might be able to persuade Lisa Murkowski to caucus with them.
As for the house, it depends what model you use to predict the results but “too close to call/Republican win” seems to be the overall verdict. Remember the magic number for control is 218
Electoral vote’s model gives Republican 216, Democrat 202, too close to call 17
Nate Silver’s model gives Republican 233, Democrat 202
Center for Politics’ model gives Republican 234, Democrat 201, (58 of the predicted Republican wins and 28 of the predicted Democrat wins are within the “leans” – ie doubtful – category)
The Cook Report’s model gives Republican 204, Democrat 181, too close to call 50
Real Clear Politics’s model gives Republican 224, Democrat 167, too close to call 44
The New York Times’s model gives Republicans 203, Democrats 190, too close to call 42
So there we have it. It should be an interesting night. Depending on your politics it could be depressing. I’m going to put up my favourite picture of all time so, no matter how bad the results are for you, we can still all smile: