The US midterms live blog

November 2, 2010 § 22 Comments

 

Blue=Democrats and Red =Republicans

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity:

Hello, good evening and welcome. I will be updating this page as results come in using the comments section throughout the night as well as tweeting on @whoruleswhere.

We have already profiled the senate and house races here, the state and gubernatorial races here, and the campaign adverts here.

Going in, the last round of polls suggest the Democrats might keep the Senate whilst the house is too close to call but could well go Republican.

The Republicans need to win 10 Democrat seats to win control of the Senate. The latest polls suggest that they are comfortably ahead in Arkansas (19% lead), Indiana (19% lead),  and North Dakota (47% lead). They should also pick up Pennsylvania (6% lead) and Wisconsin (7% lead). That gets them half way there, the rest are within the margin of error.

The Republicans lead in Illinois (by 3%), Colorado (by 2%), and Nevada (by 2%). However they trail in Washington (by 2%) and West Virginia (by 4%).

Moreover, even were the Republicans to take all five, they may need one more as polls suggest that Independent former Republican Lisa Murkowski is leading in Alaska by 5% (with the Democrat only 2% behind the Republican). Lisa Murkowski’s is a write in campaign, her name does not appear on the ballot (and isn’t the easiest to spell), so the 5% margin might not be enough to become only the second ever person elected to federal office via a write in ballot (the first was Strom Thurmond running as a Dixiecrat in South Carolina in 1954) – but it might be.

If she does pull it off then things look grim for the Republicans. Their two next best bets are California (Democrat lead of 5%) and Connecticut (Democrat lead of 9%). Or they might be able to persuade Lisa Murkowski to caucus with them.

As for the house, it depends what model you use to predict the results but “too close to call/Republican win” seems to be the overall verdict. Remember the magic number for control is 218

Electoral vote’s model gives Republican 216, Democrat 202, too close to call 17

Nate Silver’s model gives Republican 233, Democrat 202

Center for Politics’ model gives Republican 234, Democrat 201, (58 of the predicted Republican wins and 28 of the predicted Democrat wins are within the “leans” – ie doubtful – category)

The Cook Report’s model gives Republican 204, Democrat 181, too close to call 50

Real Clear Politics’s model gives Republican 224, Democrat 167, too close to call 44

The New York Times’s model gives Republicans 203, Democrats 190, too close to call 42

So there we have it. It should be an interesting night. Depending on your politics it could be depressing. I’m going to put up my favourite picture of all time so, no matter how bad the results are for you, we can still all smile:

Mccain

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§ 22 Responses to The US midterms live blog

  • Twisted Blood just asked me how on earth the Dems have managed to trail by 47% in a seat they used to hold.

    As far as I can tell what happened is the very popular Republican governor of North Dakota – John Hoeven – decided he’d run for the Senate, to which the Democratic incumbent – Byron Dorgan, who had represented ND since 1981 (11 years as its only house member, 18 years as a senator) – thought “I’m too old for this crap” and stood down.

    At this point the Dems seem to have given up on the seat and put out a call asking if any nice old hack with no ambition would be happy to just put their name forward and lose gracefully without mounting a campaign.

    Tracey Potter gamely answered that call and appears to have done just that. He’s been a state senator (woop!) for three whole years. In other words, I have more experience than this guy. Apart from that his only real attempt at running for office was when he toyed with the idea of running for insurance commissioner but then didn’t. In his own words: “When I first saw (the opening), it got the competitive juices flowing, and I thought I could win. But then I realized that if I did win, I would be insurance commissioner.”

    I like him

  • Bizzare story at the guardian live feed about a no hope Republican falsely claiming to have been endorsed by Morgan Freeman

  • Last minute Alaska poll suggests Murkowski’s lead could now be 11%. It’s a bit of an outlier from the other polls, but to me 11% says enough of a lead that even if a lot of your support does forget how to spell your name (or goes home confused that there was no box to tick) she should be in with a shot.

  • You can use CNN’s “My Races” to follow customised races precinct by precinct. It has been suggested that IN9 and KY 3 and 6 could be early bellwether seats and potential too close to call seats include: AL2, AZ8, CA4, FL8, 22 and 24, IA2, KS3, LA4, MI8 and 11, MN3, OH12, PA4 and 12, SD, TX23, and VA11

  • I have come across a truly obscure election. Portsmouth VA is electing a new Mayor after James Holley became the first mayor in American history to be recalled twice. Apparently Holley is a retired dentist, a stylish dresser, and a former mate of Martin Luther King. He was recalled for asking his PA to perform a number of personal errands on his behalf on taxpayer time. These included:

    1 Labelling his socks
    2 Searching for English leather
    3 Cancelling his playboy subscription
    4 Buying tummy support t shirts
    5 Finding Gillete hair paste
    6 Buying hats
    7 Buying exercise videos
    8 Sourcing skin cream
    9 Finding and buying medium sized wooden shoe trees
    10 Ordering grass seed
    11 Servicing his Koi pond
    12 Scheduling his sprinkler system
    13 Entering sweepstakes on his behalf
    14 Liaising with his tailor
    15 Filling in his travel details for him on websites
    16 Buying books on men’s fashion
    17 Arranging his holidays
    18 Buying his trousers, watches, golf gloves, and reading glasses
    19 Scheduling his manicurist
    20 Buying him a taser
    21 Buying his wife a treadmill
    22 Buying statues
    23 Buying toy trains and return the ones he didn’t like
    24 Fetching his medicine
    25 Organising his school reunion
    26 Checking his credit status
    27 Managing his social club
    28 Delivering his magazine
    29 Liaising with his social club
    30 Indexing and categorising his slide collection
    31 Buying knickers and forwarding to his friends
    32 Liaising with his broker
    33 Sorting out his children’s schedule
    34 Paying his membership fees
    35 Ordering his lunch
    36 Ordering make up for his family
    37 Polishing his brass
    38 Doing his shopping from Wal Mart
    39 Arranging his doctor’s appointments
    40 Liaising with his accountant
    41 Buying books about American Football
    42 Looking up facts about pedigree dogs
    43 Buying him gifts
    44 Commissioning carpenters and plumbers for his house

    Even without any of these things being euphemisms it’s quite a list.

  • A useful site for benchmarking partial results from half declared states: http://bit.ly/aKZ0nU From context and the states listed I assume by we they mean the Democrats

  • So far so predictable. Based on the first 5 or 6% percent of precincts in the first three marginals of the might the Reps are winning two of the three. So that would suggest a bad night for the Dems but not a disaster. But it’s way too early to tell.

  • Now 2-1 Dems in the first three marginal seats based on 10-20% of the vote

  • first marginal of the night KY03 is called for the Dems by CNN

  • The second marginalFL24 called for Reps, the next tranche of marginals also looking redder: FL 8 and 22, AL2.

    But its looking good for the Dems in W Virginia

  • Connecticut goes Democrat. Republicans now need to win all the marginals and, if they lose Alaska, win California.

  • West Virginia goes Democrat. A Rep senate is now a virtual impossibility

  • Another bellwether IN06 goes Rep. Reps looking good for the house.

  • House seats are like icebergs aren’t they? The first one you see you photograph the hell out of even though it’s not that impressive, but after a few hours you’re totally blaze as massive ones sail past

  • Bizarrely it looks like the Dems might hold Pensylvania

  • Ok I’m now bored and Calling it a night. If you get up before I do you can check the results on CNN. Penn looks to be going to the wire as are a lot of the marginal house races. However the Reps are winning enough other seats to take the house.

  • Back. The Reps will win about 60+ seats, the biggest swing since 1948 and get a majority of about 50 odd (243 to 192 ish). It seems to me like the Dems fought them off in some of their targets (KY03, IA02, PA4 and 12. Meanwhile AZ08 and KY06 still to close to call – going down to last 600 votes) but just lost too many others in a tide of Red

    Meanwhile: The Dems won Navada but lost Penn and Illinois. Colorado and Washington are going to the wire but it looks like the reps might pick up the former but not the latter. And it’s looking good for Lisa Murkowski in Alaska.

    So (to the nearest 1) Dem 51, Rep 48, Ind 1

    Meanwhile some interesting Gubanatorial results including an Ind who still could win in Maine.

  • And an Ind who did win on Rhode Island. And the fact that the Reps did so badly in Colorado they may no longer qualify as a major party for state funding

  • Also significant was the Alabama state senate falling to the Republicans for the first time since reconstruction. Could this spell the end of the Civil War?

  • Based on 99% of precincts, write in is 7% ahead in Alaska. So she will win provided that 13,588 people haven’t spelt her name wrong.

  • Sara says:

    Ah. I couldn’t help but bring to your attention a whole other handful of idiotic republicans tipped to have won.

    http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/10/top-10-republican-extremists

    And a nice day to you!

  • Barletta won
    Quale won
    Harmer is too close to call: he is in the lead by only 23 votes with 99% counted
    Hartzler won
    Marino won
    Toomey won
    Pantano lost quite badly
    West won
    Harris won
    Buck is still too close to call. Dems think its going their way but I’m not so sure.

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